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Occupation deep dive / O*NET-SOC 27-1024.00 / Last verified June 2026

Will AI replace graphic designers?

ILO 2025 places graphic designers in the high exposure gradient. Routine layout and asset production are technically and contextually feasible for current generative image and design tools; concepting and brand-system stewardship remain exposed but human-led.

AI impact on graphic design jobs in 2025-2026

The direct answer: AI is changing graphic design work at task level, not eliminating the occupation outright. ILO 2025 places graphic designers in the high generative-AI exposure gradient, 2 of the top 5 O*NET tasks are classified displaceable, and BLS projects employment to grow 2.1% through 2034.

ILO 2025 exposure

HighFour-band gradient, refined index

Displaceable top tasks

2 of 5Brookings 2024 task rubric

BLS 2024-2034

+2.1%Slower than average, projected employment change

Will graphic designers jobs grow or shrink by 2034?

The BLS Employment Projections 2024-2034 put graphic designers at +2.1% projected employment change (about +5.7k jobs), classified slower than average. BLS also projects about 20,000 openings each year on average over the decade, mostly from workers retiring or moving to other occupations, even where employment is flat or declining. This is the official US decade projection from the National Employment Matrix, distinct from the ILO 2025 AI-exposure gradient above. Source: BLS Employment Projections 2024-2034.

personalise this exposure

The ILO national-average exposure for Graphic Designers is 70%. Adjust the four inputs below to see how your specific role characteristics shift the number up or down.

Years in this kind of role

5 years

Your current AI-tool usage

% of work that is routine / repeatable

50%

% of work requiring judgement / relationships

30%

HIGH EXPOSURE

66%

personalised AI exposure score ยท -4% vs ILO baseline (70%)

adjustment breakdown

Years experience adjustment0%
AI tooling (moderate)-4%
Routine work share0%
Judgement / relational work share0%

Heavy AI tooling adoption reduces personalised exposure (you're already augmenting). Routine fractions above 50% raise exposure. Years of experience modestly insulate (institutional knowledge, judgement). Judgement / relational fractions reduce exposure most. The model adjusts the ILO baseline by these factors; treat as a personalised reading, not a precise forecast.

Panel 1 / Exposure

High exposure

LOWMODERATEHIGHVERY HIGHILO 2025 EXPOSURE GRADIENT

ILO 2025 places graphic designers in the high exposure gradient. Routine layout and asset production are technically and contextually feasible for current generative image and design tools; concepting and brand-system stewardship remain exposed but human-led.

Source: ILO 2025 refined Generative AI Occupational Exposure Index. ISCO-08 mapping 2166. View methodology.

Panel 2 / Tasks

Top tasks for this role

  • Create designs, concepts, and sample layouts based on knowledge of layout principles and aesthetic design concepts.

    AI image generation produces draft layouts; final concepting that meets brand and brief constraints remains human.

  • Determine size and arrangement of illustrative material and copy, and select style and size of type.

    Routine layout selection is technically and contextually feasible for current generative AI.

  • Use computer software to generate new images.

    Image generation from prompt or brief is technically and contextually feasible for current generative AI.

  • Confer with clients to discuss and determine layout design.

    Client discovery and brief refinement are augmentation-prone per Brookings 2024 and grow as AI handles more discrete production.

  • Develop graphics and layouts for product illustrations, company logos, and websites.

    AI is producing first-draft logos and layouts; brand-system and identity work remain human for differentiation.

Source: O*NET 30.2 task list (CC-BY 4.0); Brookings 2024 task-level rubric. View methodology.

Panel 3 / What is growing

Growth and skills outlook

BLS 2024-2034

Slower than average

+2.1% projected change (+5.7k jobs).

WEF 2025 / Top growing skills relevant to this role

  • Creative thinking (Cognitive)
  • AI and big data (Technology)
  • Technological literacy (Technology)

Brookings 2024 finds graphic-design production tasks highly exposed; client discovery, brand stewardship, and creative-direction roles are augmentation-prone.

Source: BLS Employment Projections 2024-2034; WEF Future of Jobs Report 2025. View methodology.

What this occupation does

Graphic designers design or create graphics to meet specific commercial or promotional needs, such as packaging, displays, or logos. The role spans concepting, layout, typography, illustration, brand systems, and production-ready file delivery across print and digital media.

The exposure score in context

The ILO 2025 refined Generative AI Occupational Exposure Index places graphic designers in the high exposure gradient. ILO 2025 places graphic designers in the high exposure gradient. Routine layout and asset production are technically and contextually feasible for current generative image and design tools; concepting and brand-system stewardship remain exposed but human-led.

The mapping uses ISCO-08 code 2166 (BLS-published SOC-to-ISCO crosswalk). The full methodology, including the dominant-match rule for one-to-many crosswalks, is at /methodology/#algorithm.

The top five tasks, classified

The top five O*NET 30.2 tasks for this occupation, each tagged Displaceable / Changing / Growing per the Brookings 2024 task-level rubric. The tag definitions are at /glossary/#displaceable-task, /glossary/#changing-task, and /glossary/#growing-task.

  1. Changing: Create designs, concepts, and sample layouts based on knowledge of layout principles and aesthetic design concepts. AI image generation produces draft layouts; final concepting that meets brand and brief constraints remains human.
  2. Displaceable: Determine size and arrangement of illustrative material and copy, and select style and size of type. Routine layout selection is technically and contextually feasible for current generative AI.
  3. Displaceable: Use computer software to generate new images. Image generation from prompt or brief is technically and contextually feasible for current generative AI.
  4. Growing: Confer with clients to discuss and determine layout design. Client discovery and brief refinement are augmentation-prone per Brookings 2024 and grow as AI handles more discrete production.
  5. Changing: Develop graphics and layouts for product illustrations, company logos, and websites. AI is producing first-draft logos and layouts; brand-system and identity work remain human for differentiation.

What is growing in this role

The BLS Employment Projections 2024-2034 outlook for graphic designers is slower than average (+2.1% projected change, +5.7k jobs). Source: BLS Employment Projections 2024-2034.

Per the WEF Future of Jobs Report 2025, the top three growing skills relevant to this role are: Creative thinking, AI and big data, Technological literacy. The skills are mapped to the occupation's O*NET skills profile.

Brookings 2024 finds graphic-design production tasks highly exposed; client discovery, brand stewardship, and creative-direction roles are augmentation-prone.

Graphic Designers in the WEF Future of Jobs Report 2025

Graphic designers appear on the WEF Future of Jobs Report 2025 fastest-declining list for the first time, ranked the 11th fastest-declining role by employer expectations, which the report attributes directly to generative AI's growing role in producing visual content. In the 2023 edition the role was categorised as moderately growing. Source: World Economic Forum, Future of Jobs Report 2025 (January 2025). The WEF lists are occupation-family level and global, ranked by change to 2030; they are distinct from the BLS 2024-2034 US projection above. The full named declining and growing lists are on what is growing.

AI's impact on graphic design jobs: 2025-2026 outlook and statistics

For 2025 and 2026 the data points two ways at once. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics projects graphic-designer employment to grow 2 percent from 2024 to 2034, slower than the 3 percent average across all occupations, from a 2024 base of about 265,900 jobs, with roughly 20,000 openings a year, most of them replacing designers who retire or move to other work. The World Economic Forum's Future of Jobs Report 2025, by contrast, ranks graphic designers the 11th fastest-declining role worldwide, the first time the occupation has appeared on that list after being classed moderately growing in the 2023 edition.

The shift is driven by generative image tools such as Adobe Firefly, built into Photoshop and Illustrator, along with Midjourney and DALL-E, which now produce usable first-draft layouts, logos, and social assets from a text brief. BLS is explicit about where this bites hardest: automated design tools, it notes, may reduce the need for companies to contract with freelance graphic designers. In-house designers who own brand systems, art direction, and production-ready delivery are more insulated than freelancers competing on volume production.

The near-term outlook is a reshaping rather than a wipe-out. WEF names UI and UX design among the fastest-growing roles even as traditional graphic design declines, a sign that demand is moving toward interactive, systems-level design work rather than disappearing. Designers who pair visual craft with AI-tool fluency, brand strategy, and UX are on the growing side of that split.

Sources: BLS Occupational Outlook Handbook, Graphic Designers; WEF Future of Jobs Report 2025.

Similar occupations

O*NET 30.2 lists the following related roles. Each links to its own deep dive where one is published.

Industry context

This role sits primarily in the Creative Industries industry. The industry-level rollup includes the cross-occupation exposure profile and the BLS-published industry-level outlook.

How this assessment was made

The full methodology is at /methodology/: ILO 2025 refined index for the gradient, Brookings 2024 rubric for the task tags, BLS 2024-2034 for the growth outlook, WEF 2025 for the skills demand. The pre-empted critiques are at /how-to-argue-with-this/.

AI impact on graphic design jobs: frequently asked questions

Will AI replace graphic designers in 2025-2026?

Not outright. The ILO 2025 refined Generative AI Occupational Exposure Index places graphic designers in the high exposure gradient, and 2 of the top 5 O*NET 30.2 tasks are classified displaceable under the Brookings 2024 task rubric, with the rest changing or growing. AI is changing graphic design work at task level in 2025-2026 rather than eliminating the occupation.

Are graphic design jobs growing or declining?

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics projects employment for graphic designers to grow 2.1% (slower than average), a projected change of +5.7k jobs between 2024 and 2034. Even so, BLS projects about 20,000 openings for graphic designers each year on average over the decade, mostly to replace workers who retire or move to other occupations. Source: BLS Employment Projections 2024-2034, National Employment Matrix.

Which graphic design tasks are most exposed to AI?

The most-exposed top tasks, classified displaceable under the Brookings 2024 rubric, are: determine size and arrangement of illustrative material and copy, and select style and size of type; use computer software to generate new images.

What skills are growing for graphic designers?

Per the WEF Future of Jobs Report 2025, the top growing skills relevant to this role are Creative thinking, AI and big data, Technological literacy.

From the cluster