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Occupation deep dive / O*NET-SOC 25-2031.00 / Last verified June 2026

Will AI replace secondary school teachers?

ILO 2025 places secondary school teachers in the low exposure gradient. The role is heavy in classroom interaction, individualised instruction, and judgement under social-emotional uncertainty, all components where current generative AI is poorly positioned to substitute.

AI impact on teaching jobs in 2025-2026

The direct answer: AI is changing teaching work at task level, not eliminating the occupation outright. ILO 2025 places secondary school teachers in the low generative-AI exposure gradient, 0 of the top 5 O*NET tasks are classified displaceable, and BLS projects employment to hold broadly flat through 2035.

ILO 2025 exposure

LowFour-band gradient, refined index

Displaceable top tasks

0 of 5Brookings 2024 task rubric

BLS 2025-2035

0%Little or no change, projected employment change

Will secondary school teachers jobs grow or shrink by 2035?

The BLS Employment Projections 2025-2035 put secondary school teachers at 0% projected employment change, classified little or no change. This is the official US decade projection from the National Employment Matrix, distinct from the ILO 2025 AI-exposure gradient above. Source: BLS Employment Projections 2025-2035.

Is this the 2024-2034 or the 2025-2035 projection?

The current BLS projection round is 2025-2035, released on 27 August 2026 (USDL-26-1422). It supersedes the 2024-2034 round. This page shows the 2025-2035 figures for secondary school teachers. If you have seen a different percentage quoted for this occupation elsewhere, it is most likely the retired 2024-2034 number rather than a contradiction. Across the whole economy the new round projects total employment rising from 170.3 million to 176.2 million jobs, a gain of 5.9 million or 3.5 percent, which is well below the 10.9 percent recorded over 2015-2025. Source: BLS Employment Projections 2025-2035 news release.

The new round also matters for this site specifically. Alongside the 2025-2035 projections, BLS published its own AI exposure categories for the first time, sorting the 831 detailed occupations it projects into Low, Moderate, High and Very High relative exposure. BLS builds the categories from three theoretical sources, which ask whether AI capabilities could match an occupation's tasks, and two observed sources drawn from 2023-2025 Claude and Copilot usage mapped to those tasks. BLS is explicit that the categories are relative rankings against other occupations, not absolute risk levels and not employment forecasts, which is the same caveat this site applies to the ILO gradient above. The two are independent measures and will not always agree. Source: BLS AI exposure categories. Checked 7 September 2026.

personalise this exposure

The ILO national-average exposure for Secondary School Teachers is 20%. Adjust the four inputs below to see how your specific role characteristics shift the number up or down.

Years in this kind of role

5 years

Your current AI-tool usage

% of work that is routine / repeatable

50%

% of work requiring judgement / relationships

30%

LOWER EXPOSURE

16%

personalised AI exposure score ยท -4% vs ILO baseline (20%)

adjustment breakdown

Years experience adjustment0%
AI tooling (moderate)-4%
Routine work share0%
Judgement / relational work share0%

Heavy AI tooling adoption reduces personalised exposure (you're already augmenting). Routine fractions above 50% raise exposure. Years of experience modestly insulate (institutional knowledge, judgement). Judgement / relational fractions reduce exposure most. The model adjusts the ILO baseline by these factors; treat as a personalised reading, not a precise forecast.

Panel 1 / Exposure

Low exposure

LOWMODERATEHIGHVERY HIGHILO 2025 EXPOSURE GRADIENT

ILO 2025 places secondary school teachers in the low exposure gradient. The role is heavy in classroom interaction, individualised instruction, and judgement under social-emotional uncertainty, all components where current generative AI is poorly positioned to substitute.

Source: ILO 2025 refined Generative AI Occupational Exposure Index. ISCO-08 mapping 2330. View methodology.

Panel 2 / Tasks

Top tasks for this role

  • Prepare materials and classrooms for class activities.

    AI-generated lesson materials are increasingly used; final pedagogical curation remains teacher-led.

  • Establish and enforce rules for behaviour and procedures for maintaining order among students.

    Classroom management is physical, social, and contextually constrained; augmentation-prone but not displaceable.

  • Adapt teaching methods and instructional materials to meet students' varying needs and interests.

    Individualised pedagogy is high-judgement and grows in importance as AI handles more of the standard content.

  • Observe and evaluate students' performance, behaviour, social development, and physical health.

    Holistic student observation is augmentation-prone per Brookings 2024 and remains human-led.

  • Prepare students for later grades by encouraging them to explore learning opportunities and persevere with challenging tasks.

    Mentoring and motivation are social-emotional tasks where current generative AI cannot substitute at task level.

Source: O*NET 30.2 task list (CC-BY 4.0); Brookings 2024 task-level rubric. View methodology.

Panel 3 / What is growing

Growth and skills outlook

BLS 2025-2035

Little or no change

0% projected change.

WEF 2025 / Top growing skills relevant to this role

  • Empathy and active listening (Self-efficacy)
  • AI and big data (Technology)
  • Resilience, flexibility and agility (Self-efficacy)

Brookings 2024 finds teaching tasks among the lowest-exposure categories: in-person instruction, classroom management, and student development are augmentation-prone but cannot be displaced at task level.

Source: BLS Employment Projections 2025-2035; WEF Future of Jobs Report 2025. View methodology.

What this occupation does

Secondary school teachers teach students in one or more subjects at the secondary level. The role spans lesson planning, classroom instruction, assessment, individual student support, and coordination with parents and school administration.

The exposure score in context

The ILO 2025 refined Generative AI Occupational Exposure Index places secondary school teachers in the low exposure gradient. ILO 2025 places secondary school teachers in the low exposure gradient. The role is heavy in classroom interaction, individualised instruction, and judgement under social-emotional uncertainty, all components where current generative AI is poorly positioned to substitute.

The mapping uses ISCO-08 code 2330 (BLS-published SOC-to-ISCO crosswalk). The full methodology, including the dominant-match rule for one-to-many crosswalks, is at /methodology/#algorithm.

The top five tasks, classified

The top five O*NET 30.2 tasks for this occupation, each tagged Displaceable / Changing / Growing per the Brookings 2024 task-level rubric. The tag definitions are at /glossary/#displaceable-task, /glossary/#changing-task, and /glossary/#growing-task.

  1. Changing: Prepare materials and classrooms for class activities. AI-generated lesson materials are increasingly used; final pedagogical curation remains teacher-led.
  2. Growing: Establish and enforce rules for behaviour and procedures for maintaining order among students. Classroom management is physical, social, and contextually constrained; augmentation-prone but not displaceable.
  3. Growing: Adapt teaching methods and instructional materials to meet students' varying needs and interests. Individualised pedagogy is high-judgement and grows in importance as AI handles more of the standard content.
  4. Growing: Observe and evaluate students' performance, behaviour, social development, and physical health. Holistic student observation is augmentation-prone per Brookings 2024 and remains human-led.
  5. Growing: Prepare students for later grades by encouraging them to explore learning opportunities and persevere with challenging tasks. Mentoring and motivation are social-emotional tasks where current generative AI cannot substitute at task level.

What is growing in this role

The BLS Employment Projections 2025-2035 outlook for secondary school teachers is little or no change (0% projected change). Source: BLS Employment Projections 2025-2035.

Per the WEF Future of Jobs Report 2025, the top three growing skills relevant to this role are: Empathy and active listening, AI and big data, Resilience, flexibility and agility. The skills are mapped to the occupation's O*NET skills profile.

Brookings 2024 finds teaching tasks among the lowest-exposure categories: in-person instruction, classroom management, and student development are augmentation-prone but cannot be displaced at task level.

Similar occupations

O*NET 30.2 lists the following related roles. Each links to its own deep dive where one is published.

Industry context

This role sits primarily in the Education industry. The industry-level rollup includes the cross-occupation exposure profile and the BLS-published industry-level outlook.

How this assessment was made

The full methodology is at /methodology/: ILO 2025 refined index for the gradient, Brookings 2024 rubric for the task tags, BLS 2025-2035 for the growth outlook, WEF 2025 for the skills demand. The pre-empted critiques are at /how-to-argue-with-this/.

AI impact on teaching jobs: frequently asked questions

Will AI replace secondary school teachers in 2025-2026?

Not outright. The ILO 2025 refined Generative AI Occupational Exposure Index places secondary school teachers in the low exposure gradient, and none of the top 5 O*NET 30.2 tasks are classified fully displaceable: the exposed tasks are changing rather than disappearing. AI is changing teaching work at task level in 2025-2026 rather than eliminating the occupation.

Are teaching jobs growing or declining?

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics projects employment for secondary school teachers to hold broadly flat (little or no change) between 2025 and 2035. Source: BLS Employment Projections 2025-2035, National Employment Matrix.

What skills are growing for secondary school teachers?

Per the WEF Future of Jobs Report 2025, the top growing skills relevant to this role are Empathy and active listening, AI and big data, Resilience, flexibility and agility.

Is this the BLS 2024-2034 or 2025-2035 employment outlook for secondary school teachers?

The current round is 2025-2035, released by BLS on 27 August 2026 (USDL-26-1422), and it supersedes the 2024-2034 round. This page reports the 2025-2035 figures for secondary school teachers, so a different percentage quoted elsewhere is most likely the retired 2024-2034 number. Economy-wide, the 2025-2035 round projects total employment rising from 170.3 million to 176.2 million jobs, a gain of 5.9 million or 3.5 percent, against 10.9 percent over 2015-2025. Alongside it BLS published its own AI exposure categories for the first time, sorting the 831 detailed occupations it projects into Low, Moderate, High and Very High relative exposure, built from three theoretical sources and two observed sources drawn from 2023-2025 Claude and Copilot usage. BLS states these are relative rankings, not absolute risk levels or employment forecasts. Sources: BLS Employment Projections 2025-2035 news release; BLS AI exposure categories.

From the cluster

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