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Occupation deep dive / O*NET-SOC 15-2051.00 / Last verified June 2026

Will AI replace data scientists?

ILO 2025 places data scientists in the moderate exposure gradient. Routine data wrangling and standard reporting are highly exposed; modelling, feature engineering, and stakeholder interpretation are augmentation-prone but not displaceable at task level.

AI impact on data science jobs in 2025-2026

The direct answer: AI is changing data science work at task level, not eliminating the occupation outright. ILO 2025 places data scientists in the moderate generative-AI exposure gradient, 1 of the top 5 O*NET tasks are classified displaceable, and BLS projects employment to grow 33.5% through 2034.

ILO 2025 exposure

ModerateFour-band gradient, refined index

Displaceable top tasks

1 of 5Brookings 2024 task rubric

BLS 2024-2034

+33.5%Much faster than average, projected employment change

Will data scientists jobs grow or shrink by 2034?

The BLS Employment Projections 2024-2034 put data scientists at +33.5% projected employment change (about +82.5k jobs), classified much faster than average. BLS also projects about 23,400 openings each year on average over the decade, mostly from workers retiring or moving to other occupations, even where employment is flat or declining. This is the official US decade projection from the National Employment Matrix, distinct from the ILO 2025 AI-exposure gradient above. Source: BLS Employment Projections 2024-2034.

In its Occupational Outlook Handbook summary, BLS rounds this to +34% (much faster than average) and reports a median annual wage of $112,590 (May 2024). Source: BLS Occupational Outlook Handbook.

personalise this exposure

The ILO national-average exposure for Data Scientists is 45%. Adjust the four inputs below to see how your specific role characteristics shift the number up or down.

Years in this kind of role

5 years

Your current AI-tool usage

% of work that is routine / repeatable

50%

% of work requiring judgement / relationships

30%

MODERATE EXPOSURE

41%

personalised AI exposure score ยท -4% vs ILO baseline (45%)

adjustment breakdown

Years experience adjustment0%
AI tooling (moderate)-4%
Routine work share0%
Judgement / relational work share0%

Heavy AI tooling adoption reduces personalised exposure (you're already augmenting). Routine fractions above 50% raise exposure. Years of experience modestly insulate (institutional knowledge, judgement). Judgement / relational fractions reduce exposure most. The model adjusts the ILO baseline by these factors; treat as a personalised reading, not a precise forecast.

Panel 1 / Exposure

Moderate exposure

LOWMODERATEHIGHVERY HIGHILO 2025 EXPOSURE GRADIENT

ILO 2025 places data scientists in the moderate exposure gradient. Routine data wrangling and standard reporting are highly exposed; modelling, feature engineering, and stakeholder interpretation are augmentation-prone but not displaceable at task level.

Source: ILO 2025 refined Generative AI Occupational Exposure Index. ISCO-08 mapping 2120. View methodology.

Panel 2 / Tasks

Top tasks for this role

  • Apply feature selection algorithms to models predicting outcomes of interest, such as sales, attrition, and healthcare use.

    AutoML and AI-augmented feature selection are widely used; final modelling judgement remains human.

  • Apply sampling techniques to determine groups to be surveyed or use complete enumeration bases.

    Sampling design involves statistical judgement that grows in importance as AI handles more execution.

  • Compare models using statistical performance metrics, such as loss functions or proportion of explained variance.

    Model comparison is heavily AI-augmented; deployment judgement remains human.

  • Develop and implement procedures for cleaning data and handling outliers.

    Standard data-cleaning is technically and contextually feasible for current generative AI.

  • Present analytical findings to non-technical audiences.

    Stakeholder communication is augmentation-prone per Brookings 2024 and grows with the volume of analyses.

Source: O*NET 30.2 task list (CC-BY 4.0); Brookings 2024 task-level rubric. View methodology.

Panel 3 / What is growing

Growth and skills outlook

BLS 2024-2034

Much faster than average

+33.5% projected change (+82.5k jobs).

WEF 2025 / Top growing skills relevant to this role

  • AI and big data (Technology)
  • Analytical thinking (Cognitive)
  • Networks and cybersecurity (Technology)

Brookings 2024 finds data-science tasks across the spectrum: data preparation is exposed; modelling judgement, feature engineering, and stakeholder communication are augmentation-prone.

Source: BLS Employment Projections 2024-2034; WEF Future of Jobs Report 2025. View methodology.

What this occupation does

Data scientists develop and implement a set of techniques or analytics applications to transform raw data into meaningful information using data-oriented programming languages and visualisation software. The role spans data preparation, modelling, statistical analysis, dashboarding, and stakeholder communication.

The exposure score in context

The ILO 2025 refined Generative AI Occupational Exposure Index places data scientists in the moderate exposure gradient. ILO 2025 places data scientists in the moderate exposure gradient. Routine data wrangling and standard reporting are highly exposed; modelling, feature engineering, and stakeholder interpretation are augmentation-prone but not displaceable at task level.

The mapping uses ISCO-08 code 2120 (BLS-published SOC-to-ISCO crosswalk). The full methodology, including the dominant-match rule for one-to-many crosswalks, is at /methodology/#algorithm.

The top five tasks, classified

The top five O*NET 30.2 tasks for this occupation, each tagged Displaceable / Changing / Growing per the Brookings 2024 task-level rubric. The tag definitions are at /glossary/#displaceable-task, /glossary/#changing-task, and /glossary/#growing-task.

  1. Changing: Apply feature selection algorithms to models predicting outcomes of interest, such as sales, attrition, and healthcare use. AutoML and AI-augmented feature selection are widely used; final modelling judgement remains human.
  2. Growing: Apply sampling techniques to determine groups to be surveyed or use complete enumeration bases. Sampling design involves statistical judgement that grows in importance as AI handles more execution.
  3. Changing: Compare models using statistical performance metrics, such as loss functions or proportion of explained variance. Model comparison is heavily AI-augmented; deployment judgement remains human.
  4. Displaceable: Develop and implement procedures for cleaning data and handling outliers. Standard data-cleaning is technically and contextually feasible for current generative AI.
  5. Growing: Present analytical findings to non-technical audiences. Stakeholder communication is augmentation-prone per Brookings 2024 and grows with the volume of analyses.

What is growing in this role

The BLS Employment Projections 2024-2034 outlook for data scientists is much faster than average (+33.5% projected change, +82.5k jobs). Source: BLS Employment Projections 2024-2034.

Per the WEF Future of Jobs Report 2025, the top three growing skills relevant to this role are: AI and big data, Analytical thinking, Networks and cybersecurity. The skills are mapped to the occupation's O*NET skills profile.

Brookings 2024 finds data-science tasks across the spectrum: data preparation is exposed; modelling judgement, feature engineering, and stakeholder communication are augmentation-prone.

Data Scientists in the WEF Future of Jobs Report 2025

The WEF Future of Jobs Report 2025 ranks big data specialists as its single fastest-growing role by proportional growth to 2030; the closely related data-analyst work tracks the same demand surge as organisations scale their use of data and AI. Source: World Economic Forum, Future of Jobs Report 2025 (January 2025). The WEF lists are occupation-family level and global, ranked by change to 2030; they are distinct from the BLS 2024-2034 US projection above. The full named growing and declining lists are on what is growing.

Similar occupations

O*NET 30.2 lists the following related roles. Each links to its own deep dive where one is published.

Industry context

This role sits primarily in the Technology industry. The industry-level rollup includes the cross-occupation exposure profile and the BLS-published industry-level outlook.

How this assessment was made

The full methodology is at /methodology/: ILO 2025 refined index for the gradient, Brookings 2024 rubric for the task tags, BLS 2024-2034 for the growth outlook, WEF 2025 for the skills demand. The pre-empted critiques are at /how-to-argue-with-this/.

AI impact on data science jobs: frequently asked questions

Will AI replace data scientists in 2025-2026?

Not outright. The ILO 2025 refined Generative AI Occupational Exposure Index places data scientists in the moderate exposure gradient, and 1 of the top 5 O*NET 30.2 tasks are classified displaceable under the Brookings 2024 task rubric, with the rest changing or growing. AI is changing data science work at task level in 2025-2026 rather than eliminating the occupation.

Are data science jobs growing or declining?

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics projects employment for data scientists to grow 33.5% (much faster than average), a projected change of +82.5k jobs between 2024 and 2034. Even so, BLS projects about 23,400 openings for data scientists each year on average over the decade, mostly to replace workers who retire or move to other occupations. Source: BLS Employment Projections 2024-2034, National Employment Matrix.

What does BLS project for data scientists, 2024-2034?

The BLS Occupational Outlook Handbook projects employment of data scientists to grow 34% (much faster than average) from 2024 to 2034, and reports a median annual wage of $112,590 (May 2024). About 23,400 openings are projected each year on average over the decade. Source: BLS Occupational Outlook Handbook.

Which data science tasks are most exposed to AI?

The most-exposed top tasks, classified displaceable under the Brookings 2024 rubric, are: develop and implement procedures for cleaning data and handling outliers.

What skills are growing for data scientists?

Per the WEF Future of Jobs Report 2025, the top growing skills relevant to this role are AI and big data, Analytical thinking, Networks and cybersecurity.

From the cluster