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Occupation deep dive / O*NET-SOC 15-1252.00 / Last verified June 2026

Will AI replace software developers?

ILO 2025 places software developers in the moderate exposure gradient. Code generation is highly exposed at task level, but architecture, debugging in production, and stakeholder coordination remain human-led activities.

AI impact on software development jobs in 2025-2026

The direct answer: AI is changing software development work at task level, not eliminating the occupation outright. ILO 2025 places software developers in the moderate generative-AI exposure gradient, 0 of the top 5 O*NET tasks are classified displaceable, and BLS projects employment to grow 10% through 2035.

ILO 2025 exposure

ModerateFour-band gradient, refined index

Displaceable top tasks

0 of 5Brookings 2024 task rubric

BLS 2025-2035

+10%Much faster than average, projected employment change

Will software developers jobs grow or shrink by 2035?

The BLS Employment Projections 2025-2035 put software developers at +10% projected employment change, classified much faster than average. This is the official US decade projection from the National Employment Matrix, distinct from the ILO 2025 AI-exposure gradient above. Source: BLS Employment Projections 2025-2035.

In its Occupational Outlook Handbook summary, BLS rounds this to +10% (much faster than average) and reports a median annual wage of $135,980 (May 2025). Source: BLS Occupational Outlook Handbook.

Is this the 2024-2034 or the 2025-2035 projection?

The current BLS projection round is 2025-2035, released on 27 August 2026 (USDL-26-1422). It supersedes the 2024-2034 round. This page shows the 2025-2035 figures for software developers. If you have seen a different percentage quoted for this occupation elsewhere, it is most likely the retired 2024-2034 number rather than a contradiction. Across the whole economy the new round projects total employment rising from 170.3 million to 176.2 million jobs, a gain of 5.9 million or 3.5 percent, which is well below the 10.9 percent recorded over 2015-2025. Source: BLS Employment Projections 2025-2035 news release.

The new round also matters for this site specifically. Alongside the 2025-2035 projections, BLS published its own AI exposure categories for the first time, sorting the 831 detailed occupations it projects into Low, Moderate, High and Very High relative exposure. BLS builds the categories from three theoretical sources, which ask whether AI capabilities could match an occupation's tasks, and two observed sources drawn from 2023-2025 Claude and Copilot usage mapped to those tasks. BLS is explicit that the categories are relative rankings against other occupations, not absolute risk levels and not employment forecasts, which is the same caveat this site applies to the ILO gradient above. The two are independent measures and will not always agree. Source: BLS AI exposure categories. Checked 7 September 2026.

personalise this exposure

The ILO national-average exposure for Software Developers is 45%. Adjust the four inputs below to see how your specific role characteristics shift the number up or down.

Years in this kind of role

5 years

Your current AI-tool usage

% of work that is routine / repeatable

50%

% of work requiring judgement / relationships

30%

MODERATE EXPOSURE

41%

personalised AI exposure score ยท -4% vs ILO baseline (45%)

adjustment breakdown

Years experience adjustment0%
AI tooling (moderate)-4%
Routine work share0%
Judgement / relational work share0%

Heavy AI tooling adoption reduces personalised exposure (you're already augmenting). Routine fractions above 50% raise exposure. Years of experience modestly insulate (institutional knowledge, judgement). Judgement / relational fractions reduce exposure most. The model adjusts the ILO baseline by these factors; treat as a personalised reading, not a precise forecast.

Panel 1 / Exposure

Moderate exposure

LOWMODERATEHIGHVERY HIGHILO 2025 EXPOSURE GRADIENT

ILO 2025 places software developers in the moderate exposure gradient. Code generation is highly exposed at task level, but architecture, debugging in production, and stakeholder coordination remain human-led activities.

Source: ILO 2025 refined Generative AI Occupational Exposure Index. ISCO-08 mapping 2512. View methodology.

Panel 2 / Tasks

Top tasks for this role

  • Modify existing software to correct errors, allow it to adapt to new hardware, or to improve its performance.

    AI coding assistants accelerate this task but contextual debugging in unfamiliar production code remains human-led.

  • Develop and direct software system testing and validation procedures, programming, and documentation.

    Documentation and unit-test scaffolding are AI-augmented; validation procedures involve judgement that remains human.

  • Consult with customers about software system design and maintenance.

    Customer consultation is augmentation-prone per Brookings 2024 and grows as AI tooling expands the range of feasible work.

  • Analyse user needs and software requirements to determine feasibility of design within time and cost constraints.

    Requirements analysis grows in importance as AI generates more candidate solutions to triage.

  • Confer with systems analysts, engineers, programmers and others to design systems.

    Cross-functional system design is high-judgement and grows with the cost of integration errors.

Source: O*NET 30.2 task list (CC-BY 4.0); Brookings 2024 task-level rubric. View methodology.

Panel 3 / What is growing

Growth and skills outlook

BLS 2025-2035

Much faster than average

+10% projected change.

WEF 2025 / Top growing skills relevant to this role

  • AI and big data (Technology)
  • Networks and cybersecurity (Technology)
  • Technological literacy (Technology)

Brookings 2024 finds software development tasks among the most augmentation-prone categories: code production is exposed, system design and human-context engineering grow.

Source: BLS Employment Projections 2025-2035; WEF Future of Jobs Report 2025. View methodology.

What this occupation does

Software developers research, design, and develop computer and network software or specialised utility programs. The role covers requirements analysis, system design, implementation, code review, debugging, and ongoing maintenance across application and infrastructure layers.

The exposure score in context

The ILO 2025 refined Generative AI Occupational Exposure Index places software developers in the moderate exposure gradient. ILO 2025 places software developers in the moderate exposure gradient. Code generation is highly exposed at task level, but architecture, debugging in production, and stakeholder coordination remain human-led activities.

The mapping uses ISCO-08 code 2512 (BLS-published SOC-to-ISCO crosswalk). The full methodology, including the dominant-match rule for one-to-many crosswalks, is at /methodology/#algorithm.

The top five tasks, classified

The top five O*NET 30.2 tasks for this occupation, each tagged Displaceable / Changing / Growing per the Brookings 2024 task-level rubric. The tag definitions are at /glossary/#displaceable-task, /glossary/#changing-task, and /glossary/#growing-task.

  1. Changing: Modify existing software to correct errors, allow it to adapt to new hardware, or to improve its performance. AI coding assistants accelerate this task but contextual debugging in unfamiliar production code remains human-led.
  2. Changing: Develop and direct software system testing and validation procedures, programming, and documentation. Documentation and unit-test scaffolding are AI-augmented; validation procedures involve judgement that remains human.
  3. Growing: Consult with customers about software system design and maintenance. Customer consultation is augmentation-prone per Brookings 2024 and grows as AI tooling expands the range of feasible work.
  4. Growing: Analyse user needs and software requirements to determine feasibility of design within time and cost constraints. Requirements analysis grows in importance as AI generates more candidate solutions to triage.
  5. Growing: Confer with systems analysts, engineers, programmers and others to design systems. Cross-functional system design is high-judgement and grows with the cost of integration errors.

What is growing in this role

The BLS Employment Projections 2025-2035 outlook for software developers is much faster than average (+10% projected change). Source: BLS Employment Projections 2025-2035.

Per the WEF Future of Jobs Report 2025, the top three growing skills relevant to this role are: AI and big data, Networks and cybersecurity, Technological literacy. The skills are mapped to the occupation's O*NET skills profile.

Brookings 2024 finds software development tasks among the most augmentation-prone categories: code production is exposed, system design and human-context engineering grow.

Software Developers in the WEF Future of Jobs Report 2025

Software and application developers are among the WEF Future of Jobs Report 2025 fastest-growing roles to 2030, driven by continued demand for digital products and AI-enabled systems even as routine coding tasks are automated. Source: World Economic Forum, Future of Jobs Report 2025 (January 2025). The WEF lists are occupation-family level and global, ranked by change to 2030; they are distinct from the BLS 2025-2035 US projection above. The full named growing and declining lists are on what is growing.

Similar occupations

O*NET 30.2 lists the following related roles. Each links to its own deep dive where one is published.

Industry context

This role sits primarily in the Technology industry. The industry-level rollup includes the cross-occupation exposure profile and the BLS-published industry-level outlook.

How this assessment was made

The full methodology is at /methodology/: ILO 2025 refined index for the gradient, Brookings 2024 rubric for the task tags, BLS 2025-2035 for the growth outlook, WEF 2025 for the skills demand. The pre-empted critiques are at /how-to-argue-with-this/.

AI impact on software development jobs: frequently asked questions

Will AI replace software developers in 2025-2026?

Not outright. The ILO 2025 refined Generative AI Occupational Exposure Index places software developers in the moderate exposure gradient, and none of the top 5 O*NET 30.2 tasks are classified fully displaceable: the exposed tasks are changing rather than disappearing. AI is changing software development work at task level in 2025-2026 rather than eliminating the occupation.

Are software development jobs growing or declining?

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics projects employment for software developers to grow 10% (much faster than average) between 2025 and 2035. Source: BLS Employment Projections 2025-2035, National Employment Matrix.

What does BLS project for software developers, 2025-2035?

The BLS Occupational Outlook Handbook projects employment of software developers to grow 10% (much faster than average) from 2025 to 2035, and reports a median annual wage of $135,980 (May 2025). Source: BLS Occupational Outlook Handbook.

What skills are growing for software developers?

Per the WEF Future of Jobs Report 2025, the top growing skills relevant to this role are AI and big data, Networks and cybersecurity, Technological literacy.

Is this the BLS 2024-2034 or 2025-2035 employment outlook for software developers?

The current round is 2025-2035, released by BLS on 27 August 2026 (USDL-26-1422), and it supersedes the 2024-2034 round. This page reports the 2025-2035 figures for software developers, so a different percentage quoted elsewhere is most likely the retired 2024-2034 number. Economy-wide, the 2025-2035 round projects total employment rising from 170.3 million to 176.2 million jobs, a gain of 5.9 million or 3.5 percent, against 10.9 percent over 2015-2025. Alongside it BLS published its own AI exposure categories for the first time, sorting the 831 detailed occupations it projects into Low, Moderate, High and Very High relative exposure, built from three theoretical sources and two observed sources drawn from 2023-2025 Claude and Copilot usage. BLS states these are relative rankings, not absolute risk levels or employment forecasts. Sources: BLS Employment Projections 2025-2035 news release; BLS AI exposure categories.

From the cluster

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