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Occupation deep dive / O*NET-SOC 41-2011.00 / Last verified June 2026

Will AI replace cashiers?

ILO 2025 places cashiers in the high exposure gradient. Point-of-sale automation (self-checkout, mobile payment) is the dominant disruption; generative AI compounds this where stores deploy AI-assisted customer service. The growing tasks are exception handling and complex customer interaction.

AI impact on cashier jobs in 2025-2026

The direct answer: AI is changing cashier work at task level, not eliminating the occupation outright. ILO 2025 places cashiers in the high generative-AI exposure gradient, 1 of the top 5 O*NET tasks are classified displaceable, and BLS projects employment to decline 6% through 2035.

ILO 2025 exposure

HighFour-band gradient, refined index

Displaceable top tasks

1 of 5Brookings 2024 task rubric

BLS 2025-2035

-6%Decline, projected employment change

Will cashiers jobs grow or shrink by 2035?

The BLS Employment Projections 2025-2035 put cashiers at -6% projected employment change, classified decline. BLS also projects about 521,300 openings each year on average over the decade, mostly from workers retiring or moving to other occupations, even where employment is flat or declining. This is the official US decade projection from the National Employment Matrix, distinct from the ILO 2025 AI-exposure gradient above. Source: BLS Employment Projections 2025-2035.

In its Occupational Outlook Handbook summary, BLS rounds this to -6% (decline) and reports a median annual wage of $33,220 (May 2025). Source: BLS Occupational Outlook Handbook.

Is this the 2024-2034 or the 2025-2035 projection?

The current BLS projection round is 2025-2035, released on 27 August 2026 (USDL-26-1422). It supersedes the 2024-2034 round. This page shows the 2025-2035 figures for cashiers. If you have seen a different percentage quoted for this occupation elsewhere, it is most likely the retired 2024-2034 number rather than a contradiction. Across the whole economy the new round projects total employment rising from 170.3 million to 176.2 million jobs, a gain of 5.9 million or 3.5 percent, which is well below the 10.9 percent recorded over 2015-2025. Source: BLS Employment Projections 2025-2035 news release.

The new round also matters for this site specifically. Alongside the 2025-2035 projections, BLS published its own AI exposure categories for the first time, sorting the 831 detailed occupations it projects into Low, Moderate, High and Very High relative exposure. BLS builds the categories from three theoretical sources, which ask whether AI capabilities could match an occupation's tasks, and two observed sources drawn from 2023-2025 Claude and Copilot usage mapped to those tasks. BLS is explicit that the categories are relative rankings against other occupations, not absolute risk levels and not employment forecasts, which is the same caveat this site applies to the ILO gradient above. The two are independent measures and will not always agree. Source: BLS AI exposure categories. Checked 7 September 2026.

personalise this exposure

The ILO national-average exposure for Cashiers is 70%. Adjust the four inputs below to see how your specific role characteristics shift the number up or down.

Years in this kind of role

5 years

Your current AI-tool usage

% of work that is routine / repeatable

50%

% of work requiring judgement / relationships

30%

HIGH EXPOSURE

66%

personalised AI exposure score ยท -4% vs ILO baseline (70%)

adjustment breakdown

Years experience adjustment0%
AI tooling (moderate)-4%
Routine work share0%
Judgement / relational work share0%

Heavy AI tooling adoption reduces personalised exposure (you're already augmenting). Routine fractions above 50% raise exposure. Years of experience modestly insulate (institutional knowledge, judgement). Judgement / relational fractions reduce exposure most. The model adjusts the ILO baseline by these factors; treat as a personalised reading, not a precise forecast.

Panel 1 / Exposure

High exposure

LOWMODERATEHIGHVERY HIGHILO 2025 EXPOSURE GRADIENT

ILO 2025 places cashiers in the high exposure gradient. Point-of-sale automation (self-checkout, mobile payment) is the dominant disruption; generative AI compounds this where stores deploy AI-assisted customer service. The growing tasks are exception handling and complex customer interaction.

Source: ILO 2025 refined Generative AI Occupational Exposure Index. ISCO-08 mapping 5230. View methodology.

Panel 2 / Tasks

Top tasks for this role

  • Receive payment by cash, check, credit cards, vouchers, or automatic debits.

    Self-checkout and AI-assisted payment are widely deployed; routine transactions are in scope.

  • Issue receipts, refunds, credits, or change due to customers.

    Standard issuance is automated; complex refunds remain human-led at most stores.

  • Greet customers entering establishments.

    In-person greeting and store presence are physical, contextually constrained, and augmentation-prone.

  • Resolve customer complaints.

    AI handles standard complaints; complex multi-issue complaints remain human-led.

  • Maintain clean and orderly checkout areas.

    Physical store maintenance is contextually constrained and augmentation-prone.

Source: O*NET 30.2 task list (CC-BY 4.0); Brookings 2024 task-level rubric. View methodology.

Panel 3 / What is growing

Growth and skills outlook

BLS 2025-2035

Decline

-6% projected change.

WEF 2025 / Top growing skills relevant to this role

  • Empathy and active listening (Self-efficacy)
  • Technological literacy (Technology)
  • Resilience, flexibility and agility (Self-efficacy)

Brookings 2024 notes cashier-style tasks are among the most-exposed in retail. The dominant disruption is point-of-sale automation; generative AI compounds it through customer-service deployment.

Source: BLS Employment Projections 2025-2035; WEF Future of Jobs Report 2025. View methodology.

What this occupation does

Cashiers receive and disburse money in establishments other than financial institutions, typically processing customer payments, returns, and exchanges. The role spans point-of-sale operation, customer interaction, cash handling, and basic store-level support.

The exposure score in context

The ILO 2025 refined Generative AI Occupational Exposure Index places cashiers in the high exposure gradient. ILO 2025 places cashiers in the high exposure gradient. Point-of-sale automation (self-checkout, mobile payment) is the dominant disruption; generative AI compounds this where stores deploy AI-assisted customer service. The growing tasks are exception handling and complex customer interaction.

The mapping uses ISCO-08 code 5230 (BLS-published SOC-to-ISCO crosswalk). The full methodology, including the dominant-match rule for one-to-many crosswalks, is at /methodology/#algorithm.

The top five tasks, classified

The top five O*NET 30.2 tasks for this occupation, each tagged Displaceable / Changing / Growing per the Brookings 2024 task-level rubric. The tag definitions are at /glossary/#displaceable-task, /glossary/#changing-task, and /glossary/#growing-task.

  1. Displaceable: Receive payment by cash, check, credit cards, vouchers, or automatic debits. Self-checkout and AI-assisted payment are widely deployed; routine transactions are in scope.
  2. Changing: Issue receipts, refunds, credits, or change due to customers. Standard issuance is automated; complex refunds remain human-led at most stores.
  3. Growing: Greet customers entering establishments. In-person greeting and store presence are physical, contextually constrained, and augmentation-prone.
  4. Changing: Resolve customer complaints. AI handles standard complaints; complex multi-issue complaints remain human-led.
  5. Growing: Maintain clean and orderly checkout areas. Physical store maintenance is contextually constrained and augmentation-prone.

What is growing in this role

The BLS Employment Projections 2025-2035 outlook for cashiers is decline (-6% projected change). Source: BLS Employment Projections 2025-2035.

Per the WEF Future of Jobs Report 2025, the top three growing skills relevant to this role are: Empathy and active listening, Technological literacy, Resilience, flexibility and agility. The skills are mapped to the occupation's O*NET skills profile.

Brookings 2024 notes cashier-style tasks are among the most-exposed in retail. The dominant disruption is point-of-sale automation; generative AI compounds it through customer-service deployment.

Cashiers in the WEF Future of Jobs Report 2025

Cashiers and ticket clerks face one of the largest declines in absolute numbers in the WEF Future of Jobs Report 2025, and rank among its fastest-declining roles by proportion, projected to fall about 20% by 2030 as self-checkout and digital ticketing spread. Source: World Economic Forum, Future of Jobs Report 2025 (January 2025). The WEF lists are occupation-family level and global, ranked by change to 2030; they are distinct from the BLS 2025-2035 US projection above. The full named declining and growing lists are on what is growing.

Similar occupations

O*NET 30.2 lists the following related roles. Each links to its own deep dive where one is published.

Industry context

This role sits primarily in the Retail industry. The industry-level rollup includes the cross-occupation exposure profile and the BLS-published industry-level outlook.

How this assessment was made

The full methodology is at /methodology/: ILO 2025 refined index for the gradient, Brookings 2024 rubric for the task tags, BLS 2025-2035 for the growth outlook, WEF 2025 for the skills demand. The pre-empted critiques are at /how-to-argue-with-this/.

AI impact on cashier jobs: frequently asked questions

Will AI replace cashiers in 2025-2026?

Not outright. The ILO 2025 refined Generative AI Occupational Exposure Index places cashiers in the high exposure gradient, and 1 of the top 5 O*NET 30.2 tasks are classified displaceable under the Brookings 2024 task rubric, with the rest changing or growing. AI is changing cashier work at task level in 2025-2026 rather than eliminating the occupation.

Are cashier jobs growing or declining?

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics projects employment for cashiers to decline 6% (decline) between 2025 and 2035. Even so, BLS projects about 521,300 openings for cashiers each year on average over the decade, mostly to replace workers who retire or move to other occupations. Source: BLS Employment Projections 2025-2035, National Employment Matrix.

What does BLS project for cashiers, 2025-2035?

The BLS Occupational Outlook Handbook projects employment of cashiers to decline 6% from 2025 to 2035, and reports a median annual wage of $33,220 (May 2025). About 521,300 openings are projected each year on average over the decade. Source: BLS Occupational Outlook Handbook.

Which cashier tasks are most exposed to AI?

The most-exposed top tasks, classified displaceable under the Brookings 2024 rubric, are: receive payment by cash, check, credit cards, vouchers, or automatic debits.

What skills are growing for cashiers?

Per the WEF Future of Jobs Report 2025, the top growing skills relevant to this role are Empathy and active listening, Technological literacy, Resilience, flexibility and agility.

Is this the BLS 2024-2034 or 2025-2035 employment outlook for cashiers?

The current round is 2025-2035, released by BLS on 27 August 2026 (USDL-26-1422), and it supersedes the 2024-2034 round. This page reports the 2025-2035 figures for cashiers, so a different percentage quoted elsewhere is most likely the retired 2024-2034 number. Economy-wide, the 2025-2035 round projects total employment rising from 170.3 million to 176.2 million jobs, a gain of 5.9 million or 3.5 percent, against 10.9 percent over 2015-2025. Alongside it BLS published its own AI exposure categories for the first time, sorting the 831 detailed occupations it projects into Low, Moderate, High and Very High relative exposure, built from three theoretical sources and two observed sources drawn from 2023-2025 Claude and Copilot usage. BLS states these are relative rankings, not absolute risk levels or employment forecasts. Sources: BLS Employment Projections 2025-2035 news release; BLS AI exposure categories.

From the cluster

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